{"id":116079,"date":"2023-10-24T13:38:36","date_gmt":"2023-10-24T13:38:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/staging.wingify.com\/blog\/sequential-testing\/"},"modified":"2026-09-15T13:35:24","modified_gmt":"2026-09-15T08:05:24","slug":"sequential-testing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wingify.com\/blog\/sequential-testing\/","title":{"rendered":"How to Effectively Use Sequential Testing"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In A\/B tests where you can see the data coming in a continuous stream, it\u2019s tempting to stop the experiment before the planned end. It\u2019s so tempting that in fact a lot of practitioners don\u2019t even really know why one has to define a testing period beforehand.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Some platforms have even changed their statistical tools to take this into account and have switched to sequential testing which is designed to handle tests this way.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Sequential testing enables you to evaluate data as it\u2019s collected to determine if an early decision can be made, helping you cut down on A\/B test duration as you can &#8216;peak&#8217; at set points.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">But, is this an efficient and beneficial type of testing? Spoiler: yes and no, depending on the way you use it.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Why do we need to wait for the predetermined end of the experiment?&nbsp;<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Planning and respecting the data collection period of an experiment is crucial. Historical techniques use &#8220;fixed horizon testing&#8221; that establishes these guidelines for all to follow. If you do not respect this condition, then you don\u2019t have the guarantee provided by the statistical framework. This statistical framework guarantees that you only have a 5% error risk when using the common decision thresholds.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.abtasty.com\/web-experimentation-and-personalization\/campaign-flow-advanced-options\/sequential-testing-alerts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Sequential testing<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> promises that when using the proper statistical formulas, you can stop an experiment as soon as the decision threshold is crossed and still have the 5% error risk guarantee. The test user here is the sequential Z-test, which is based on the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Z-test\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">classical Z-test<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> with an added correction to take the sequential usage into account.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In the following sections, we will look at two objections that are often raised when it comes to sequential testing that may put it at odds with CRO practices.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Sequential testing objection 1: \u201c<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Each day has to be sampled the same<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201d<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The first objection is that one should sample each day of the week the same way. This is basically to have a sampling that represents reality. This is the case in a classic A\/B test. However, this rule may be broken if you use sequential testing since you can stop the test mid-week but this is not always applicable. Since in reality there are seven different days, your sampling unit should be by week and not by day to account for behavioral differences over the course of a week.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">As experiments typically last 2-3 weeks, then the promise of sequential testing saving days isn\u2019t necessarily correct unless a winner appears very early in the process. However, it\u2019s more likely that the statistical test yielded significance during the last week. In this case, it\u2019s best to complete the data collection until each day is sampled evenly so that <\/span><b>the full period is covered<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Let&#8217;s consider the following simulation setting:<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">One reference with a 5% conversion rate<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">One variation with a\u00a0 5.5% conversion rate (a 10% relative improvement)<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">5,000 visitors as daily traffic<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">14 days (2 weeks) of data collection<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">We ran thousands of such experiments to get histograms for different decision index<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In the following histogram, the horizontal axis is the day when the sequential testing crosses the significance threshold. The vertical axis is the ratio of experiments which stopped on this day.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.wingify.com\/gcp\/uploads\/abtasty\/histogram-360x240.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.5;width:360px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In this setting, day 10 is the most likely day for the sequential testing to reach significance. This means that you will need to wait until the planned end of the test to respect the \u201csame sampling each day\u201d rule. And it\u2019s very unlikely that you will get a significant positive result in one week. Thus, in practice, <strong>determining the winner sooner with sequential testing doesn&#8217;t apply in CRO.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Sequential testing objection 2: \u201c<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Yes, (effect) size does matter<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201d<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In sequential testing, this is often a less obvious problem and may need some further clarification to be properly understood.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In CRO, we consider mainly two statistical indices for decision-making:&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><b>The <\/b><b><i>pValue or any other confidence index<\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">,<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> which is linked to the fact that there exists (or not) a difference between the original and the variation. This index is used to validate or invalidate the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/wingify.com\/blog\/formulate-ab-test-hypothesis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">test hypothesis<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. But a validated hypothesis is not necessarily a good business decision, so we need more information.<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><b>The <\/b><b><i>Confidence Interval (CI)<\/i><\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">around the estimated gain, which indicates the size of the effect. It\u2019s also central to business decisions. For instance, a variation can be a clear winner but with a very little margin that may not cover the implementation or operating costs such as coupon offerings that need to cover the coupon cost.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Confidence intervals can be seen as a best and worst case scenario. For example a CI = [1% ; 12%] means \u201cin the worst case you will only get 1% relative uplift,\u201d which means going from 5% conversion rate to 5.05%.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">If the variation has an implementation or operating cost, the results may not be satisfying. In that case, the solution would be to collect more data in order to have a <\/span><b>narrower confidence interval<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, until you get a more satisfying lower bound, or you may find that the upper bound goes very low showing that the effect, even if it exists, is too low to be worth it from a business perspective.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Using the same scenario as above, the lower bound of the confidence interval can be plotted as follows:<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Horizontal axis &#8211; the percentage value of the lower bound<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Vertical axis &#8211; the proportion of experiments with this lower bound value<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Blue curve &#8211; sequential testing CI<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Orange curve &#8211; classical fixed horizon testing<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.wingify.com\/gcp\/uploads\/abtasty\/histogram2-360x240.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.5;width:360px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">We can see that sequential testing has a very low confidence interval for the lower bound. Most of the time, this is lower than 2% (in relative gain, which is very small). This means that you will get very poor information for business decisions.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Meanwhile, a classic fixed horizon testing (orange curve) will produce a lower bound &gt;5% in half of the cases, which is a more comfortable margin. Therefore, you can continue the data collection until you have a useful result, which means waiting for more data. Even if by chance the sequential testing found a variant reaching significance in one week, you will still need to collect data for another week to do two things: have a useful estimation of the uplift and sample each day equally.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This makes sense in light of the purpose of sequential testing: quickly detect when a variation produces results that differ from the original, whether for the worse or better.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">If done as soon as possible, it makes sense to stop the experiment as soon as the gain confidence interval lays mostly either on the positive or negative side. Then, for the positive side, the CI lower bound is close to 0, which doesn\u2019t allow for efficient business decisions. It\u2019s worth noting that for other applications other than CRO, this behaviour may be optimal and that\u2019s why sequential testing exists.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">When does sequential testing in CRO make sense?<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">As we&#8217;ve seen, sequential testing should not be used to quickly determine a winning variation. However, <\/span><b>it can be useful in CRO in order to detect losing variations as soon as possible<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> (and prevent loss of conversions, revenue, &#8230;).<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">You may be wondering why it&#8217;s acceptable to stop an experiment midway through when your variation is losing rather than when you have a winning variation. This is because of the following reasons:<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The most obvious one: To put it simply, you\u2019re losing conversions. This is acceptable in the context of searching for a better variation than the original. However, this makes little sense in cases where there is a notable loss, indicating that the variation has no more chances to be a winner. <a href=\"https:\/\/wingify.com\/blog\/sequential-testing-alerts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">An alerting system<\/a> set at a low sensitivity level will help detect such impactful losses.<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The less obvious one: Sometimes when an experiment is only slightly &#8220;losing&#8221; for a good period of time, practitioners tend to let this kind of test run in the hopes that it may turn into a &#8220;winner&#8221;. Thus, they accept this loss because the variation is only &#8220;slightly&#8221; losing but they often forget that another valuable component is lost in the process: traffic, which is essential for experimentation. For an optimal <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/wingify.com\/blog\/conversion-rate-optimization-guide\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">CRO strategy<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, one needs to take these factors into account and consider stopping this kind of useless experiment, doomed to have small effects. In such a scenario, an automated alert system will suggest stopping this kind of test and allocate this traffic to other experiments.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Therefore, sequential testing is, in fact, a valuable tool to alert and stop a losing variation.<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">However, one more objection could still be raised: by stopping the experiment midway,&nbsp; you are breaking the \u201csample each day the same\u201d rule.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><strong>In this particular case, stopping a losing variation has very little chance to be a bad move.<\/strong> In order for the detected variation to become a winner, it first needs to gain enough conversions tobe comparable to the original version. Then it would need another set of conversions to be a \u201cmild\u201d winner and that still wouldn\u2019t be enough to be considered a business winner (and cover the implementation or exploitation costs of that winner). To be considered a winner for your business, the competing variation will need another high amount of conversions with a sufficient margin. This margin needs to be high enough to cover the cost of implementation, localization, and\/or operating costs.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">All the aforementioned events should happen in less than a week (ie. the number of days needed to complete the current week). This is very unlikely, which means it\u2019s safe and smart to stop such experiments.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Conclusion<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">It may be surprising or disappointing to see that there\u2019s no business value in stopping winning experiments early as others may believe. This is because a statistical winner is not a business winner. Stopping a test early is taking away the data you need to reach a significant effect size that would increase your chances of getting a winning variation.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">With that in mind, <strong>the best way to use this type of testing is as an alert to help spot and stop tests that are either harmful to the business or not worth continuing.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b><i>About the Author:<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Hubert Wassner has been working as a Senior Data Scientist at Wingify since 2014. With a passion for science, data and technology, his work has focused primarily on all the statistical aspects of the platform, which includes building Bayesian statistical tests adapted to the practice of A\/B testing for the web and setting up a data science team for machine learning needs.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">After getting his degree in Computer Science with a speciality in Signal Processing at <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.esiea.fr\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">ESIEA<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, Hubert started his career as a research engineer doing research work in the field of voice recognition in Switzerland followed by research in the field of genomic data mining at a biotech company. He was also a professor at ESIEA engineer school where he taught courses in algorithmics and machine learning.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In A\/B tests where you can see the data coming in a continuous stream, it\u2019s tempting to stop the experiment before the planned end. It\u2019s so tempting that in fact a lot of practitioners don\u2019t even really know why one has to define a testing period beforehand.&nbsp; Some platforms have even changed their statistical tools&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1432,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"post_read_time":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10676,1865],"tags":[],"feature":[],"industry-type":[],"product":[],"role":[],"region":[],"class_list":["post-116079","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-a-b-testing","category-website-optimization"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How to Effectively Use Sequential Testing - Wingify Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In this article, we explore how to effectively use sequential testing in Conversion Rate Optimization (CRO).\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wingify.com\/blog\/sequential-testing\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How to Effectively Use Sequential Testing - 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